SF San Francisco 49ers playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The San Francisco 49ers are 6-1 (3-0 in the division, 4-1 in the NFC). They lead the NFC West, and would be the NFC's No. 1 seed as NFC West leaders if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 93% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 69% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 78% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 79% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 85% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 87% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 94% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 97% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 94% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 93% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 96% | Projected (range 88%–95%) |
| After Week 10 | 98% | Projected (range 91%–98%) |
| After Week 11 | >99% | Projected (range 88%–99%) |
| After Week 12 | >99% | Projected (range 86%–>99%) |
| After Week 13 | >99% | Projected (range 91%–>99%) |
| After Week 14 | >99% | Projected (range 86%–>99%) |
| After Week 15 | >99% | Projected (range 91%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | >99% | Projected (range 92%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | >99% | Projected (range 90%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | >99% | Projected (range >99%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- DeForest Buckner RDT
Acquired from the Colts in a trade (Oct 27)
- Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable
Mild hamstring strain; not expected to miss Week 9
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the 49ers need
The 49ers have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 6.1 more wins, for a final record around 12-5. Their toughest remaining game is at the Chiefs in Week 16 (49% to win); the most winnable is at the Cardinals in Week 18 (74%). Our power rankings have them #4. Lost to Falcons 20–29 on the road. Playing below its rating lately.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. LV Raiders | 73% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at DAL Cowboys | 54% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | vs. MIN Vikings | 62% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | vs. SEA Seahawks | 54% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at NYG Giants | 63% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | vs. LAR Rams | 52% |
| 15 | Dec 17 | at LAC Chargers | 63% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | at KC Chiefs | 49% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. PHI Eagles | 70% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at ARI Cardinals | 74% |
NFC West standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF 49ers | 6-1 | 93% | 79% |
| SEA Seahawks | 4-4 | 45% | 11% |
| LAR Rams | 4-4 | 48% | 10% |
| ARI Cardinals | 3-5 | 1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at LAR Rams | W 27–7 |
| 2 | vs. MIA Dolphins | W 35–13 |
| 3 | vs. ARI Cardinals | W 36–30 |
| 4 | vs. DEN Broncos | W 24–14 |
| 5 | at SEA Seahawks | W 32–29 |
| 6 | vs. WAS Commanders | W 23–17 |
| 7 | at ATL Falcons | L 20–29 |
Questions
Can the 49ers still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 93% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the 49ers' chances to win the Super Bowl?
12%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 23% of the time.
How many games will the 49ers win?
The model projects 12.1 wins on average, from their 6-1 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the 49ers stand in the NFC West?
1st place, with a 79% chance to win the division.
More
Seahawks playoff chances · Rams playoff chances · Cardinals playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings