MIN Minnesota Vikings playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Minnesota Vikings are 6-1 (2-1 in the division, 4-1 in the NFC). They lead the NFC North, and would be the NFC's No. 2 seed as NFC North leaders if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 86% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 46% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 53% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 65% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 74% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 78% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 86% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 87% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 90% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 86% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 82% | Projected (range 80%–92%) |
| After Week 10 | 74% | Projected (range 76%–97%) |
| After Week 11 | 66% | Projected (range 70%–98%) |
| After Week 12 | 76% | Projected (range 75%–99%) |
| After Week 13 | 84% | Projected (range 72%–>99%) |
| After Week 14 | 79% | Projected (range 72%–>99%) |
| After Week 15 | 93% | Projected (range 77%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | 98% | Projected (range 75%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | >99% | Projected (range 70%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | 99% | Projected (range >99%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- J.J. McCarthy
Traded to the Giants (Sept 28)
- Kyler Murray QB Questionable
Hamstring soreness; not yet cleared, update Thursday
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Vikings need
The Vikings have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 5.3 more wins, for a final record around 11-6. Their toughest remaining game is at the 49ers in Week 11 (38% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Commanders in Week 16 (64%). Our power rankings have them #6. Lost to Lions 15–19 on the road.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 9 | vs. BUF Bills | 48% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at GB Packers | 46% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | at SF 49ers | 38% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | vs. ATL Falcons | 62% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | vs. CAR Panthers | 64% |
| 14 | Dec 10 | at NE Patriots | 44% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | vs. DET Lions | 55% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. WAS Commanders | 64% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | at NYJ Jets | 61% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. CHI Bears | 48% |
NFC North standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Vikings | 6-1 | 86% | 36% |
| CHI Bears | 6-2 | 86% | 32% |
| DET Lions | 5-2 | 75% | 25% |
| GB Packers | 5-3 | 50% | 7% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. GB Packers | W 39–22 |
| 2 | at CHI Bears | W 9–3 |
| 3 | at TB Buccaneers | W 23–16 |
| 4 | vs. MIA Dolphins | W 15–10 |
| 5 | at NO Saints | W 23–13 |
| 7 | vs. IND Colts | W 16–10 |
| 8 | at DET Lions | L 15–19 |
Questions
Can the Vikings still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 86% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Vikings' chances to win the Super Bowl?
6%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 12% of the time.
How many games will the Vikings win?
The model projects 11.3 wins on average, from their 6-1 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Vikings stand in the NFC North?
1st place, with a 36% chance to win the division.
More
Bears playoff chances · Lions playoff chances · Packers playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings