DAL Dallas Cowboys playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Dallas Cowboys are 3-5 (2-1 in the division, 2-4 in the NFC). They are 2nd in the NFC East, behind Giants, and would be on the outside looking in, 13th in the NFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 27% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 56% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 47% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 51% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 43% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 50% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 43% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 39% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 43% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 27% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 34% | Projected (range 16%–45%) |
| After Week 10 | 25% | Projected (range 13%–48%) |
| After Week 11 | 29% | Projected (range 10%–54%) |
| After Week 12 | 36% | Projected (range 5%–60%) |
| After Week 13 | 27% | Projected (range 3%–56%) |
| After Week 14 | 27% | Projected (range 3%–56%) |
| After Week 15 | 20% | Projected (range 0%–72%) |
| After Week 16 | 12% | Projected (range 0%–63%) |
| After Week 17 | 17% | Projected (range 0%–83%) |
| After Week 18 | 28% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Caleb Downs NB Questionable
Concussion protocol
- Joey Porter Jr. LCB
Acquired from the Steelers in a trade (Oct 1)
- Jake Ferguson TE Questionable
Low ankle sprain
- P.J. Locke FS Questionable
Concussion protocol
- Malachi Lawrence SLB Questionable
Ankle; could miss time
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Cowboys need
The Cowboys have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 4.7 more wins, for a final record around 8-9. Their toughest remaining game is at the Rams in Week 15 (33% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Titans in Week 11 (72%). Our power rankings have them #19. Lost to Cardinals 30–33 at home.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | at IND Colts | 59% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | vs. SF 49ers | 46% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | vs. TEN Titans | 72% |
| 12 | Nov 26 | vs. PHI Eagles | 63% |
| 13 | Dec 7 | at SEA Seahawks | 36% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at LAR Rams | 33% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. JAX Jaguars | 48% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. NYG Giants | 64% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at WAS Commanders | 53% |
NFC East standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG Giants | 4-2-1 | 58% | 55% |
| DAL Cowboys | 3-5 | 27% | 25% |
| WAS Commanders | 2-4-1 | 17% | 15% |
| PHI Eagles | 2-6 | 5% | 5% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at NYG Giants | L 20–28 |
| 2 | vs. WAS Commanders | W 37–20 |
| 3 | vs. BAL Ravens | L 31–34 |
| 4 | at HOU Texans | W 34–30 |
| 5 | vs. TB Buccaneers | L 16–24 |
| 6 | at GB Packers | L 13–23 |
| 7 | at PHI Eagles | W 38–21 |
| 8 | vs. ARI Cardinals | L 30–33 |
Questions
Can the Cowboys still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 27% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Cowboys' chances to win the Super Bowl?
1%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 3% of the time.
How many games will the Cowboys win?
The model projects 7.7 wins on average, from their 3-5 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Cowboys stand in the NFC East?
2nd place, with a 25% chance to win the division.
More
Giants playoff chances · Commanders playoff chances · Eagles playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings