ATL Atlanta Falcons playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Atlanta Falcons are 3-5 (1-2 in the division, 3-3 in the NFC). They are 3rd in the NFC South, behind Panthers, Buccaneers, and would be on the outside looking in, 11th in the NFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 25% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 36% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 30% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 20% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 31% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 39% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 31% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 24% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 34% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 25% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 19% | Projected (range 16%–36%) |
| After Week 10 | 13% | Projected (range 15%–40%) |
| After Week 11 | 13% | Projected (range 14%–42%) |
| After Week 12 | 9% | Projected (range 10%–47%) |
| After Week 13 | 5% | Projected (range 8%–47%) |
| After Week 14 | 7% | Projected (range 5%–59%) |
| After Week 15 | 4% | Projected (range 1%–61%) |
| After Week 16 | 7% | Projected (range 0%–74%) |
| After Week 17 | 11% | Projected (range 0%–81%) |
| After Week 18 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Samson Ebukam SLB Questionable
Hamstring; possible multi-game absence
- Zachariah Branch WR Out
Hamstring; ruled out for Week 9
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Falcons need
The Falcons have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 4.4 more wins, for a final record around 7-10. Their toughest remaining game is at the Vikings in Week 12 (38% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Saints in Week 17 (60%). Our power rankings have them #17. Lost to Buccaneers 0–16 on the road.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. CIN Bengals | 44% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | vs. KC Chiefs | 44% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | at MIN Vikings | 38% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | vs. DET Lions | 48% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | at CLE Browns | 53% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at WAS Commanders | 48% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. TB Buccaneers | 52% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. NO Saints | 60% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at CAR Panthers | 48% |
NFC South standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR Panthers | 3-4 | 32% | 30% |
| TB Buccaneers | 3-5 | 36% | 34% |
| ATL Falcons | 3-5 | 25% | 22% |
| NO Saints | 2-5 | 15% | 14% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at PIT Steelers | L 13–20 |
| 2 | vs. CAR Panthers | L 3–34 |
| 3 | at GB Packers | W 35–14 |
| 4 | at NO Saints | W 45–24 |
| 5 | vs. BAL Ravens | L 23–30 |
| 6 | vs. CHI Bears | L 23–31 |
| 7 | vs. SF 49ers | W 29–20 |
| 8 | at TB Buccaneers | L 0–16 |
Questions
Can the Falcons still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 25% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Falcons' chances to win the Super Bowl?
1%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 2% of the time.
How many games will the Falcons win?
The model projects 7.3 wins on average, from their 3-5 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Falcons stand in the NFC South?
3rd place, with a 22% chance to win the division.
More
Panthers playoff chances · Buccaneers playoff chances · Saints playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings