KC Kansas City Chiefs playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-2 (3-1 in the division, 5-1 in the AFC). They are 2nd in the AFC West, behind Broncos, and would be the AFC's No. 5 seed if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 85% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 70% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 77% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 81% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 84% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 90% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 89% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 91% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 90% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 85% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 89% | Projected (range 76%–90%) |
| After Week 10 | 94% | Projected (range 72%–94%) |
| After Week 11 | 95% | Projected (range 75%–96%) |
| After Week 12 | 94% | Projected (range 68%–96%) |
| After Week 13 | 92% | Projected (range 61%–98%) |
| After Week 14 | 87% | Projected (range 62%–>99%) |
| After Week 15 | 95% | Projected (range 64%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | 98% | Projected (range 68%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | >99% | Projected (range 44%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | >99% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Peter Woods LDT Questionable
Neck
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Chiefs need
The Chiefs have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 5.7 more wins, for a final record around 11-6. Their toughest remaining game is at the Rams in Week 13 (39% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Cardinals in Week 11 (79%). Our power rankings have them #12. Lost to Broncos 24–28 on the road.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. NYJ Jets | 74% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at ATL Falcons | 56% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | vs. ARI Cardinals | 79% |
| 12 | Nov 26 | at BUF Bills | 42% |
| 13 | Dec 3 | at LAR Rams | 39% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | at CIN Bengals | 46% |
| 15 | Dec 21 | vs. NE Patriots | 56% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. SF 49ers | 51% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | at LAC Chargers | 59% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. LV Raiders | 69% |
AFC West standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Broncos | 6-2 | 87% | 52% |
| KC Chiefs | 5-2 | 85% | 44% |
| LV Raiders | 4-4 | 20% | 5% |
| LAC Chargers | 0-7 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. DEN Broncos | W 31–10 |
| 2 | vs. IND Colts | W 33–30 |
| 3 | at MIA Dolphins | W 24–10 |
| 4 | at LV Raiders | W 30–27 |
| 6 | vs. LAC Chargers | W 22–6 |
| 7 | at SEA Seahawks | L 3–20 |
| 8 | at DEN Broncos | L 24–28 |
Questions
Can the Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 85% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Chiefs' chances to win the Super Bowl?
6%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 13% of the time.
How many games will the Chiefs win?
The model projects 10.7 wins on average, from their 5-2 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Chiefs stand in the AFC West?
2nd place, with a 44% chance to win the division.
More
Broncos playoff chances · Raiders playoff chances · Chargers playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings