MIA Miami Dolphins playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Miami Dolphins are 1-6 (1-1 in the division, 1-4 in the AFC). They are 4th in the AFC East, behind Bills, Patriots, Jets, and would be on the outside looking in, 14th in the AFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs <1% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 6% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 4% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 3% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 1% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 1% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | <1% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | <1% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 0% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | <1% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | <1% | Projected (range <1%–0%) |
| After Week 10 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–0%) |
| After Week 11 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–0%) |
| After Week 12 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–<1%) |
| After Week 13 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–<1%) |
| After Week 14 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–<1%) |
| After Week 15 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–0%) |
| After Week 16 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–0%) |
| After Week 17 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–0%) |
| After Week 18 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–0%) |
News & injuries
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Dolphins need
The Dolphins have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 2.9 more wins, for a final record around 4-13. Their toughest remaining game is at the Bills in Week 11 (19% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Jets in Week 12 (47%). Our power rankings have them #29. Lost to Patriots 19–24 at home.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. DET Lions | 29% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at IND Colts | 33% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | at BUF Bills | 19% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | vs. NYJ Jets | 47% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at DEN Broncos | 24% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | vs. CHI Bears | 26% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at GB Packers | 25% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. LAC Chargers | 42% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. BUF Bills | 26% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at NE Patriots | 23% |
AFC East standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF Bills | 6-1 | 97% | 76% |
| NE Patriots | 5-3 | 76% | 24% |
| NYJ Jets | 2-6 | 1% | <1% |
| MIA Dolphins | 1-6 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at LV Raiders | L 13–27 |
| 2 | at SF 49ers | L 13–35 |
| 3 | vs. KC Chiefs | L 10–24 |
| 4 | at MIN Vikings | L 10–15 |
| 5 | vs. CIN Bengals | L 24–31 |
| 7 | at NYJ Jets | W 28–25 |
| 8 | vs. NE Patriots | L 19–24 |
Questions
Can the Dolphins still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in <1% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Dolphins' chances to win the Super Bowl?
0%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 0% of the time.
How many games will the Dolphins win?
The model projects 4.0 wins on average, from their 1-6 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Dolphins stand in the AFC East?
4th place, with a <1% chance to win the division.
More
Bills playoff chances · Patriots playoff chances · Jets playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings