WAS Washington Commanders playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Washington Commanders are 2-4-1 (1-2-1 in the division, 2-3-1 in the NFC). They are 3rd in the NFC East, behind Giants, Cowboys, and would be on the outside looking in, 14th in the NFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 17% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 27% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 20% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 14% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 22% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 13% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 14% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 12% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 10% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 17% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 12% | Projected (range 11%–25%) |
| After Week 10 | 3% | Projected (range 3%–37%) |
| After Week 11 | 1% | Projected (range 1%–41%) |
| After Week 12 | 2% | Projected (range 1%–40%) |
| After Week 13 | 3% | Projected (range <1%–54%) |
| After Week 14 | 1% | Projected (range 0%–48%) |
| After Week 15 | 1% | Projected (range 0%–52%) |
| After Week 16 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–54%) |
| After Week 17 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–46%) |
| After Week 18 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Jeremy McNichols RB Questionable
Mid-foot injury, may be serious
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Commanders need
The Commanders have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 4.5 more wins, for a final record around 6-10. Their toughest remaining game is at the Jaguars in Week 17 (32% to win); the most winnable is at the Cardinals in Week 12 (59%). Our power rankings have them #21. Beat Eagles 27–10 at home. Playing well above its rating lately.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. LAR Rams | 34% |
| 10 | Nov 12 | at NYG Giants | 47% |
| 11 | Nov 23 | vs. CIN Bengals | 41% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | at ARI Cardinals | 59% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at TEN Titans | 56% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | vs. HOU Texans | 44% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | vs. ATL Falcons | 52% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | at MIN Vikings | 36% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | at JAX Jaguars | 32% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. DAL Cowboys | 47% |
NFC East standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG Giants | 4-2-1 | 58% | 55% |
| DAL Cowboys | 3-5 | 27% | 25% |
| WAS Commanders | 2-4-1 | 17% | 15% |
| PHI Eagles | 2-6 | 5% | 5% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at PHI Eagles | L 22–24 |
| 2 | at DAL Cowboys | L 20–37 |
| 3 | vs. SEA Seahawks | W 33–31 |
| 4 | vs. IND Colts | L 13–30 |
| 5 | vs. NYG Giants | T 27–27 |
| 6 | at SF 49ers | L 17–23 |
| 8 | vs. PHI Eagles | W 27–10 |
Questions
Can the Commanders still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 17% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Commanders' chances to win the Super Bowl?
<1%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 1% of the time.
How many games will the Commanders win?
The model projects 7.0 wins on average, from their 2-4-1 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Commanders stand in the NFC East?
3rd place, with a 15% chance to win the division.
More
Giants playoff chances · Cowboys playoff chances · Eagles playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings