LV Las Vegas Raiders playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Las Vegas Raiders are 4-4 (1-1 in the division, 3-3 in the AFC). They are 3rd in the AFC West, behind Broncos, Chiefs, and would be on the outside looking in, 9th in the AFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 20% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 26% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 31% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 40% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 45% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 37% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 28% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 19% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 15% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 20% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 16% | Projected (range 13%–31%) |
| After Week 10 | 11% | Projected (range 9%–34%) |
| After Week 11 | 5% | Projected (range 4%–39%) |
| After Week 12 | 1% | Projected (range 0%–50%) |
| After Week 13 | 1% | Projected (range 1%–52%) |
| After Week 14 | 2% | Projected (range <1%–65%) |
| After Week 15 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–65%) |
| After Week 16 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–86%) |
| After Week 17 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–85%) |
| After Week 18 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Raiders need
The Raiders have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 3.9 more wins, for a final record around 8-9. Their toughest remaining game is at the 49ers in Week 9 (27% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Titans in Week 16 (63%). Our power rankings have them #20. Beat Jets 38–33 on the road.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | at SF 49ers | 27% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | vs. SEA Seahawks | 36% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | at DEN Broncos | 34% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | at CLE Browns | 48% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | vs. LAC Chargers | 53% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | vs. DEN Broncos | 43% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. TEN Titans | 63% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | at ARI Cardinals | 56% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at KC Chiefs | 31% |
AFC West standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN Broncos | 6-2 | 87% | 52% |
| KC Chiefs | 5-2 | 85% | 44% |
| LV Raiders | 4-4 | 20% | 5% |
| LAC Chargers | 0-7 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. MIA Dolphins | W 27–13 |
| 2 | at LAC Chargers | W 26–14 |
| 3 | at NO Saints | W 35–27 |
| 4 | vs. KC Chiefs | L 27–30 |
| 5 | at NE Patriots | L 17–45 |
| 6 | vs. BUF Bills | L 30–33 |
| 7 | vs. LAR Rams | L 21–35 |
| 8 | at NYJ Jets | W 38–33 |
Questions
Can the Raiders still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 20% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Raiders' chances to win the Super Bowl?
<1%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 1% of the time.
How many games will the Raiders win?
The model projects 7.9 wins on average, from their 4-4 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Raiders stand in the AFC West?
3rd place, with a 5% chance to win the division.
More
Broncos playoff chances · Chiefs playoff chances · Chargers playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings