CHI Chicago Bears playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Chicago Bears are 6-2 (0-2 in the division, 4-2 in the NFC). They are 2nd in the NFC North, behind Vikings, and would be the NFC's No. 5 seed if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 86% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 67% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 72% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 62% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 68% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 71% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 62% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 73% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 76% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 86% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 91% | Projected (range 74%–91%) |
| After Week 10 | 91% | Projected (range 74%–92%) |
| After Week 11 | 94% | Projected (range 66%–95%) |
| After Week 12 | 98% | Projected (range 64%–98%) |
| After Week 13 | 99% | Projected (range 60%–>99%) |
| After Week 14 | >99% | Projected (range 56%–>99%) |
| After Week 15 | >99% | Projected (range 62%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | >99% | Projected (range 65%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | >99% | Projected (range 50%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | >99% | Projected (range >99%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Jeffery Simmons RDT
Acquired from the Titans in a trade (Oct 29)
- Grady Jarrett LDT Questionable
Groin; left Monday night
- Kentavius Street RDT Out
Knee; carted off Monday night
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Bears need
The Bears have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 5.4 more wins, for a final record around 11-6. Their toughest remaining game is at the Bills in Week 15 (45% to win); the most winnable is at the Dolphins in Week 14 (74%). Our power rankings have them #1. Beat Seahawks 34–17 on the road. 3 straight wins. Playing well above its rating lately.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. TB Buccaneers | 66% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | vs. NO Saints | 72% |
| 12 | Nov 26 | at DET Lions | 52% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | vs. JAX Jaguars | 57% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | at MIA Dolphins | 74% |
| 15 | Dec 19 | at BUF Bills | 45% |
| 16 | Dec 25 | vs. GB Packers | 63% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. DET Lions | 61% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at MIN Vikings | 52% |
NFC North standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Vikings | 6-1 | 86% | 36% |
| CHI Bears | 6-2 | 86% | 32% |
| DET Lions | 5-2 | 75% | 25% |
| GB Packers | 5-3 | 50% | 7% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at CAR Panthers | W 59–37 |
| 2 | vs. MIN Vikings | L 3–9 |
| 3 | vs. PHI Eagles | W 27–7 |
| 4 | vs. NYJ Jets | W 23–12 |
| 5 | at GB Packers | L 7–31 |
| 6 | at ATL Falcons | W 31–23 |
| 7 | vs. NE Patriots | W 30–24 |
| 8 | at SEA Seahawks | W 34–17 |
Questions
Can the Bears still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 86% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Bears' chances to win the Super Bowl?
9%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 17% of the time.
How many games will the Bears win?
The model projects 11.4 wins on average, from their 6-2 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Bears stand in the NFC North?
2nd place, with a 32% chance to win the division.
More
Vikings playoff chances · Lions playoff chances · Packers playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings