GB Green Bay Packers playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Green Bay Packers are 5-3 (1-2 in the division, 4-3 in the NFC). They are 4th in the NFC North, behind Vikings, Bears, Lions, and would be the NFC's No. 7 seed if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 50% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 40% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 32% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 35% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 26% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 32% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 44% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 58% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 43% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 50% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 42% | Projected (range 39%–66%) |
| After Week 10 | 54% | Projected (range 26%–76%) |
| After Week 11 | 54% | Projected (range 26%–76%) |
| After Week 12 | 42% | Projected (range 15%–84%) |
| After Week 13 | 54% | Projected (range 15%–88%) |
| After Week 14 | 43% | Projected (range 13%–89%) |
| After Week 15 | 49% | Projected (range 8%–96%) |
| After Week 16 | 34% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | 46% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | 77% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Micah Parsons RDE PUP list
Knee (ACL); targeting a Week 12 debut
- Christian Watson WR Questionable
Fractured rib in Week 8, finished the game
- Sean Rhyan C Out
High ankle sprain; expected out at least a month
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Packers need
The Packers have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 4.5 more wins, for a final record around 10-7. Their toughest remaining game is at the Rams in Week 12 (35% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Dolphins in Week 15 (75%). Our power rankings have them #15. Beat Panthers 27–19 at home.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | at NE Patriots | 44% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | vs. MIN Vikings | 54% |
| 12 | Nov 25 | at LAR Rams | 35% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at NO Saints | 56% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | vs. BUF Bills | 46% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | vs. MIA Dolphins | 75% |
| 16 | Dec 25 | at CHI Bears | 37% |
| 17 | Jan 4 | vs. HOU Texans | 52% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. DET Lions | 53% |
NFC North standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Vikings | 6-1 | 86% | 36% |
| CHI Bears | 6-2 | 86% | 32% |
| DET Lions | 5-2 | 75% | 25% |
| GB Packers | 5-3 | 50% | 7% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at MIN Vikings | L 22–39 |
| 2 | at NYJ Jets | W 20–17 |
| 3 | vs. ATL Falcons | L 14–35 |
| 4 | at TB Buccaneers | W 17–14 |
| 5 | vs. CHI Bears | W 31–7 |
| 6 | vs. DAL Cowboys | W 23–13 |
| 7 | at DET Lions | L 17–20 |
| 8 | vs. CAR Panthers | W 27–19 |
Questions
Can the Packers still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 50% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Packers' chances to win the Super Bowl?
3%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 5% of the time.
How many games will the Packers win?
The model projects 9.5 wins on average, from their 5-3 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Packers stand in the NFC North?
4th place, with a 7% chance to win the division.
More
Vikings playoff chances · Bears playoff chances · Lions playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings