JAX Jacksonville Jaguars playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 5-2 (1-1 in the division, 4-2 in the AFC). They lead the AFC South, and would be the AFC's No. 4 seed as AFC South leaders if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 91% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 76% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 80% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 74% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 80% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 87% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 90% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 84% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 87% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 91% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 94% | Projected (range 82%–96%) |
| After Week 10 | 97% | Projected (range 86%–98%) |
| After Week 11 | 99% | Projected (range 86%–99%) |
| After Week 12 | 99% | Projected (range 85%–>99%) |
| After Week 13 | 99% | Projected (range 86%–>99%) |
| After Week 14 | >99% | Projected (range 78%–>99%) |
| After Week 15 | >99% | Projected (range 92%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | >99% | Projected (range 85%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | >99% | Projected (range >99%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | >99% | Projected (range >99%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Travon Walker LDE Questionable
Ribs; missed Monday practice
- Eric Murray SS Injured reserve
Elbow; out for season
- DaVon Hamilton RDT Injured reserve
Torn quadriceps; season-ending
- Bhayshul Tuten RB Questionable
Ankle/foot; missed Monday practice
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Jaguars need
The Jaguars have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 6.1 more wins, for a final record around 11-6. Their toughest remaining game is at the Bears in Week 13 (43% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Titans in Week 12 (77%). Our power rankings have them #3. Beat Colts 42–7 at home. Results have outpaced the play-by-play numbers.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 5 | at BAL Ravens | 72% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at TEN Titans | 69% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | at NYG Giants | 60% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | vs. TEN Titans | 77% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at CHI Bears | 43% |
| 14 | Dec 14 | vs. PIT Steelers | 63% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at HOU Texans | 48% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | at DAL Cowboys | 52% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. WAS Commanders | 68% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at IND Colts | 60% |
AFC South standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX Jaguars | 5-2 | 91% | 84% |
| HOU Texans | 2-5 | 27% | 13% |
| IND Colts | 2-6 | 4% | 2% |
| TEN Titans | 1-7 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. CLE Browns | W 34–10 |
| 2 | at DEN Broncos | L 13–20 |
| 3 | vs. NE Patriots | W 35–6 |
| 4 | at CIN Bengals | W 22–17 |
| 5 | vs. PHI Eagles | W 19–17 |
| 6 | vs. HOU Texans | L 31–34 |
| 8 | vs. IND Colts | W 42–7 |
Questions
Can the Jaguars still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 91% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Jaguars' chances to win the Super Bowl?
8%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 16% of the time.
How many games will the Jaguars win?
The model projects 11.1 wins on average, from their 5-2 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Jaguars stand in the AFC South?
1st place, with a 84% chance to win the division.
More
Texans playoff chances · Colts playoff chances · Titans playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings