TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-5 (2-0 in the division, 3-2 in the NFC). They are 2nd in the NFC South, behind Panthers, and would be on the outside looking in, 10th in the NFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 36% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 45% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 41% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 33% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 27% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 19% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 26% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 19% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 26% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 36% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 30% | Projected (range 23%–48%) |
| After Week 10 | 30% | Projected (range 21%–48%) |
| After Week 11 | 23% | Projected (range 19%–59%) |
| After Week 12 | 31% | Projected (range 11%–72%) |
| After Week 13 | 38% | Projected (range 9%–72%) |
| After Week 14 | 28% | Projected (range 4%–78%) |
| After Week 15 | 38% | Projected (range 3%–88%) |
| After Week 16 | 19% | Projected (range 0%–94%) |
| After Week 17 | 10% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | 19% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Yaya Diaby RDE Out
Grade 2 MCL sprain; misses at least one game
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Buccaneers need
The Buccaneers have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 4.5 more wins, for a final record around 7-10. Their toughest remaining game is at the Bears in Week 9 (34% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Saints in Week 15 (62%). Our power rankings have them #14. Beat Falcons 16–0 at home. Playing well above its rating lately. Results have outpaced the play-by-play numbers.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | at CHI Bears | 34% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | at DET Lions | 40% |
| 12 | Nov 30 | vs. CAR Panthers | 59% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | vs. LAC Chargers | 61% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | at BAL Ravens | 49% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | vs. NO Saints | 62% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | at ATL Falcons | 48% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. LAR Rams | 41% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at NO Saints | 53% |
NFC South standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR Panthers | 3-4 | 32% | 30% |
| TB Buccaneers | 3-5 | 36% | 34% |
| ATL Falcons | 3-5 | 25% | 22% |
| NO Saints | 2-5 | 15% | 14% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at CIN Bengals | L 27–33 |
| 2 | vs. CLE Browns | L 19–23 |
| 3 | vs. MIN Vikings | L 16–23 |
| 4 | vs. GB Packers | L 14–17 |
| 5 | at DAL Cowboys | W 24–16 |
| 6 | vs. PIT Steelers | L 19–26 |
| 7 | at CAR Panthers | W 43–13 |
| 8 | vs. ATL Falcons | W 16–0 |
Questions
Can the Buccaneers still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 36% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Buccaneers' chances to win the Super Bowl?
1%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 3% of the time.
How many games will the Buccaneers win?
The model projects 7.5 wins on average, from their 3-5 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Buccaneers stand in the NFC South?
2nd place, with a 34% chance to win the division.
More
Panthers playoff chances · Falcons playoff chances · Saints playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings