NE New England Patriots playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The New England Patriots are 5-3 (3-0 in the division, 5-1 in the AFC). They are 2nd in the AFC East, behind Bills, and would be the AFC's No. 7 seed if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 76% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 62% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 56% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 64% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 54% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 68% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 73% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 77% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 72% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 76% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 84% | Projected (range 64%–88%) |
| After Week 10 | 78% | Projected (range 56%–94%) |
| After Week 11 | 78% | Projected (range 57%–94%) |
| After Week 12 | 87% | Projected (range 63%–97%) |
| After Week 13 | 80% | Projected (range 52%–98%) |
| After Week 14 | 90% | Projected (range 52%–>99%) |
| After Week 15 | 83% | Projected (range 44%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | 92% | Projected (range 32%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | 99% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | >99% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- A.J. Brown WR Questionable
Knee/ankle; status uncertain
- Hunter Henry TE Questionable
Foot; left Week 8
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Patriots need
The Patriots have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 5.1 more wins, for a final record around 10-7. Their toughest remaining game is at the Chiefs in Week 15 (44% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Dolphins in Week 18 (77%). Our power rankings have them #11. Beat Dolphins 24–19 on the road.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. GB Packers | 56% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at DET Lions | 46% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | at LAC Chargers | 58% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | vs. BUF Bills | 49% |
| 14 | Dec 10 | vs. MIN Vikings | 56% |
| 15 | Dec 21 | at KC Chiefs | 44% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | at NYJ Jets | 63% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | vs. DEN Broncos | 57% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. MIA Dolphins | 77% |
AFC East standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF Bills | 6-1 | 97% | 76% |
| NE Patriots | 5-3 | 76% | 24% |
| NYJ Jets | 2-6 | 1% | <1% |
| MIA Dolphins | 1-6 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at SEA Seahawks | L 10–13 |
| 2 | vs. PIT Steelers | W 20–3 |
| 3 | at JAX Jaguars | L 6–35 |
| 4 | at BUF Bills | W 29–26 |
| 5 | vs. LV Raiders | W 45–17 |
| 6 | vs. NYJ Jets | W 26–19 |
| 7 | at CHI Bears | L 24–30 |
| 8 | at MIA Dolphins | W 24–19 |
Questions
Can the Patriots still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 76% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Patriots' chances to win the Super Bowl?
5%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 10% of the time.
How many games will the Patriots win?
The model projects 10.0 wins on average, from their 5-3 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Patriots stand in the AFC East?
2nd place, with a 24% chance to win the division.
More
Bills playoff chances · Jets playoff chances · Dolphins playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings