BUF Buffalo Bills playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Buffalo Bills are 6-1 (0-1 in the division, 4-1 in the AFC). They lead the AFC East, and would be the AFC's No. 1 seed as AFC East leaders if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 97% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 77% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 84% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 88% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 90% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 87% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 90% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 94% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 93% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 97% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 98% | Projected (range 96%–98%) |
| After Week 10 | 99% | Projected (range 94%–>99%) |
| After Week 11 | >99% | Projected (range 94%–>99%) |
| After Week 12 | >99% | Projected (range 91%–>99%) |
| After Week 13 | >99% | Projected (range 94%–>99%) |
| After Week 14 | >99% | Projected (range 94%–>99%) |
| After Week 15 | >99% | Projected (range 92%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | >99% | Projected (range 98%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | >99% | Projected (range >99%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | >99% | Projected (range >99%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- C.J. Gardner-Johnson FS Out
Released by the Bills (Nov 3) after a one-game suspension
- DJ Moore WR Questionable
Knee and shoulder (AC sprain)
- Joshua Palmer WR Out
Right hamstring
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Bills need
The Bills have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 6.2 more wins, for a final record around 12-5. Their toughest remaining game is at the Patriots in Week 13 (51% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Dolphins in Week 11 (81%). Our power rankings have them #2. Beat Ravens 36–10 at home. 3 straight wins. Playing well above its rating lately.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 9 | at MIN Vikings | 52% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at NYJ Jets | 68% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | vs. MIA Dolphins | 81% |
| 12 | Nov 26 | vs. KC Chiefs | 58% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at NE Patriots | 51% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | at GB Packers | 54% |
| 15 | Dec 19 | vs. CHI Bears | 55% |
| 16 | Dec 25 | at DEN Broncos | 54% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | at MIA Dolphins | 74% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. NYJ Jets | 76% |
AFC East standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF Bills | 6-1 | 97% | 76% |
| NE Patriots | 5-3 | 76% | 24% |
| NYJ Jets | 2-6 | 1% | <1% |
| MIA Dolphins | 1-6 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at HOU Texans | W 36–31 |
| 2 | vs. DET Lions | W 41–31 |
| 3 | vs. LAC Chargers | W 24–16 |
| 4 | vs. NE Patriots | L 26–29 |
| 5 | at LAR Rams | W 37–34 |
| 6 | at LV Raiders | W 33–30 |
| 8 | vs. BAL Ravens | W 36–10 |
Questions
Can the Bills still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 97% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Bills' chances to win the Super Bowl?
12%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 23% of the time.
How many games will the Bills win?
The model projects 12.2 wins on average, from their 6-1 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Bills stand in the AFC East?
1st place, with a 76% chance to win the division.
More
Patriots playoff chances · Jets playoff chances · Dolphins playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings