DET Detroit Lions playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Detroit Lions are 5-2 (2-0 in the division, 4-1 in the NFC). They are 3rd in the NFC North, behind Vikings, Bears, and would be the NFC's No. 6 seed if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 75% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 53% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 58% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 51% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 59% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 46% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 53% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 56% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 65% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 75% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 80% | Projected (range 62%–83%) |
| After Week 10 | 85% | Projected (range 60%–87%) |
| After Week 11 | 91% | Projected (range 58%–92%) |
| After Week 12 | 86% | Projected (range 54%–98%) |
| After Week 13 | 93% | Projected (range 51%–98%) |
| After Week 14 | 95% | Projected (range 44%–99%) |
| After Week 15 | 92% | Projected (range 37%–>99%) |
| After Week 16 | 97% | Projected (range 21%–>99%) |
| After Week 17 | 95% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
| After Week 18 | 91% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Brian Branch SS Questionable
Concussion protocol
- D.J. Reed LCB Questionable
Hip; left late in Week 8
- Cade Mays C Questionable
Ankle; Juice Scruggs filled in at center
- Jack Campbell MLB Out
Neck; carted off and hospitalized in Week 8
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Lions need
The Lions have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 5.6 more wins, for a final record around 11-6. Their toughest remaining game is at the Bears in Week 17 (39% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Titans in Week 14 (74%). Our power rankings have them #9. Beat Vikings 19–15 at home. 3 straight wins. Playing well above its rating lately.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | at MIA Dolphins | 71% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | vs. NE Patriots | 54% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | vs. TB Buccaneers | 60% |
| 12 | Nov 26 | vs. CHI Bears | 48% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at ATL Falcons | 52% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | vs. TEN Titans | 74% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at MIN Vikings | 45% |
| 16 | Dec 28 | vs. NYG Giants | 66% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | at CHI Bears | 39% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | at GB Packers | 47% |
NFC North standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN Vikings | 6-1 | 86% | 36% |
| CHI Bears | 6-2 | 86% | 32% |
| DET Lions | 5-2 | 75% | 25% |
| GB Packers | 5-3 | 50% | 7% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. NO Saints | W 31–30 |
| 2 | at BUF Bills | L 31–41 |
| 3 | vs. NYJ Jets | W 31–24 |
| 4 | at CAR Panthers | L 26–32 |
| 5 | at ARI Cardinals | W 45–21 |
| 7 | vs. GB Packers | W 20–17 |
| 8 | vs. MIN Vikings | W 19–15 |
Questions
Can the Lions still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 75% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Lions' chances to win the Super Bowl?
5%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 10% of the time.
How many games will the Lions win?
The model projects 10.6 wins on average, from their 5-2 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Lions stand in the NFC North?
3rd place, with a 25% chance to win the division.
More
Vikings playoff chances · Bears playoff chances · Packers playoff chances · All NFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings