HOU Houston Texans playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Houston Texans are 2-5 (2-1 in the division, 2-3 in the AFC). They are 2nd in the AFC South, behind Jaguars, and would be on the outside looking in, 11th in the AFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 27% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 64% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 58% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 51% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 36% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 27% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 28% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 39% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 28% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 27% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 33% | Projected (range 14%–36%) |
| After Week 10 | 42% | Projected (range 7%–41%) |
| After Week 11 | 50% | Projected (range 5%–47%) |
| After Week 12 | 61% | Projected (range 2%–48%) |
| After Week 13 | 76% | Projected (range 1%–59%) |
| After Week 14 | 86% | Projected (range 0%–64%) |
| After Week 15 | 96% | Projected (range 0%–82%) |
| After Week 16 | 99% | Projected (range 0%–89%) |
| After Week 17 | 98% | Projected (range 0%–94%) |
| After Week 18 | >99% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Marvin Harrison Jr. WR
Acquired from the Cardinals in a trade (Oct 12)
- David Montgomery RB Questionable
Groin; inactive two games
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Texans need
The Texans have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 10 games left, the model expects about 5.9 more wins, for a final record around 8-9. Their toughest remaining game is at the Packers in Week 17 (48% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Titans in Week 18 (75%). Our power rankings have them #16. Lost to Giants 21–27 at home. The play-by-play numbers are better than the scores.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | at LAC Chargers | 62% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | at CLE Browns | 62% |
| 11 | Nov 19 | vs. IND Colts | 66% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | vs. BAL Ravens | 64% |
| 13 | Dec 6 | at PIT Steelers | 51% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | at WAS Commanders | 56% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | vs. JAX Jaguars | 52% |
| 16 | Dec 24 | at PHI Eagles | 57% |
| 17 | Jan 4 | at GB Packers | 48% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. TEN Titans | 75% |
AFC South standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX Jaguars | 5-2 | 91% | 84% |
| HOU Texans | 2-5 | 27% | 13% |
| IND Colts | 2-6 | 4% | 2% |
| TEN Titans | 1-7 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. BUF Bills | L 31–36 |
| 2 | vs. CIN Bengals | L 6–20 |
| 3 | at IND Colts | L 17–19 |
| 4 | vs. DAL Cowboys | L 30–34 |
| 5 | at TEN Titans | W 26–3 |
| 6 | at JAX Jaguars | W 34–31 |
| 7 | vs. NYG Giants | L 21–27 |
Questions
Can the Texans still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 27% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Texans' chances to win the Super Bowl?
2%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 3% of the time.
How many games will the Texans win?
The model projects 7.9 wins on average, from their 2-5 start and the 10 games left.
Where do the Texans stand in the AFC South?
2nd place, with a 13% chance to win the division.
More
Jaguars playoff chances · Colts playoff chances · Titans playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings