BAL Baltimore Ravens playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Baltimore Ravens are 4-4 (0-2 in the division, 2-3 in the AFC). They are 4th in the AFC North, behind Steelers, Bengals, Browns, and would be on the outside looking in, 10th in the AFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 19% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 32% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 39% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 31% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 36% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 43% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 50% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 35% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 27% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 19% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 14% | Projected (range 13%–30%) |
| After Week 10 | 18% | Projected (range 7%–29%) |
| After Week 11 | 12% | Projected (range 5%–31%) |
| After Week 12 | 7% | Projected (range 2%–40%) |
| After Week 13 | 7% | Projected (range 2%–35%) |
| After Week 14 | 9% | Projected (range 0%–48%) |
| After Week 15 | 2% | Projected (range 0%–48%) |
| After Week 16 | 3% | Projected (range 0%–58%) |
| After Week 17 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–83%) |
| After Week 18 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–>99%) |
News & injuries
- Lamar Jackson QB Injured reserve
Right thumb surgery, on IR; at least 4 games, possibly season-ending (Nov 1)
- Tyler Huntley QB Injured reserve
Turf toe, season-ending per ESPN (Nov 3)
- Joe Fagnano QB
Named Thursday starter vs. JAX; practicing with a brace on his right ankle
- Cam Jurgens C Questionable
Acquired from the Eagles (Oct 7). In concussion protocol after self-reporting symptoms (Nov 2)
- Roquan Smith LILB Questionable
Foot; limited Monday
- Justice Hill RB Questionable
Groin; was the emergency QB in Week 8
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Ravens need
The Ravens have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 4.0 more wins, for a final record around 8-9. Their toughest remaining game is vs. the Jaguars in Week 9 (28% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Browns in Week 16 (61%). Our power rankings have them #27. Lamar Jackson out, Joe Fagnano starting. Lost to Bills 10–36 on the road. 3 straight losses.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 5 | vs. JAX Jaguars | 28% |
| 10 | Nov 16 | vs. LAC Chargers | 57% |
| 11 | Nov 22 | at CAR Panthers | 46% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | at HOU Texans | 36% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | vs. TB Buccaneers | 51% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at PIT Steelers | 42% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. CLE Browns | 61% |
| 17 | Dec 31 | at CIN Bengals | 34% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. PIT Steelers | 51% |
AFC North standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT Steelers | 6-2 | 75% | 35% |
| CIN Bengals | 5-2 | 84% | 51% |
| CLE Browns | 5-3 | 34% | 9% |
| BAL Ravens | 4-4 | 19% | 4% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | at IND Colts | W 41–23 |
| 2 | vs. NO Saints | L 17–24 |
| 3 | at DAL Cowboys | W 34–31 |
| 4 | vs. TEN Titans | W 24–18 |
| 5 | at ATL Falcons | W 30–23 |
| 6 | at CLE Browns | L 10–13 |
| 7 | vs. CIN Bengals | L 13–35 |
| 8 | at BUF Bills | L 10–36 |
Questions
Can the Ravens still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 19% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Ravens' chances to win the Super Bowl?
<1%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl 1% of the time.
How many games will the Ravens win?
The model projects 8.1 wins on average, from their 4-4 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Ravens stand in the AFC North?
4th place, with a 4% chance to win the division.
More
Steelers playoff chances · Bengals playoff chances · Browns playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings