IND Indianapolis Colts playoff chances
Week 9 · 2026 season · updated Nov 4, 2026
The Indianapolis Colts are 2-6 (1-2 in the division, 1-5 in the AFC). They are 3rd in the AFC South, behind Jaguars, Texans, and would be on the outside looking in, 13th in the AFC if the season ended today. In 10,000 simulated seasons they make the playoffs 4% of the time.
Playoff chances by week
Earlier weeks are re-run with the results known at the time, using today's team ratings. The shaded area shows how far their odds could swing over the rest of the season.
Show as a table
| Before Week 1 | 31% | Actual |
| After Week 1 | 23% | Actual |
| After Week 2 | 19% | Actual |
| After Week 3 | 23% | Actual |
| After Week 4 | 29% | Actual |
| After Week 5 | 19% | Actual |
| After Week 6 | 11% | Actual |
| After Week 7 | 9% | Actual |
| After Week 8 | 4% | Actual |
| After Week 9 | 2% | Projected (range 1%–7%) |
| After Week 10 | 3% | Projected (range <1%–7%) |
| After Week 11 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–9%) |
| After Week 12 | 1% | Projected (range 0%–6%) |
| After Week 13 | 1% | Projected (range 0%–7%) |
| After Week 14 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–12%) |
| After Week 15 | <1% | Projected (range 0%–8%) |
| After Week 16 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–11%) |
| After Week 17 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–<1%) |
| After Week 18 | 0% | Projected (range 0%–0%) |
News & injuries
- DeForest Buckner
Traded to the 49ers (Oct 27)
- Quenton Nelson
Traded to the Seahawks (Oct 27)
Injury report
As of Nov 4, 2026. The simulator lets you mark any player out and see how the odds change.
What the Colts need
The Colts have not clinched anything yet and are not close to elimination. With 9 games left, the model expects about 4.3 more wins, for a final record around 6-11. Their toughest remaining game is at the Texans in Week 11 (34% to win); the most winnable is vs. the Dolphins in Week 10 (67%). Our power rankings have them #26. Lost to Jaguars 7–42 on the road. 4 straight losses. Playing below its rating lately.
Remaining schedule
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Nov 8 | vs. DAL Cowboys | 41% |
| 10 | Nov 15 | vs. MIA Dolphins | 67% |
| 11 | Nov 19 | at HOU Texans | 34% |
| 12 | Nov 29 | vs. NYG Giants | 55% |
| 14 | Dec 13 | at PHI Eagles | 45% |
| 15 | Dec 20 | at TEN Titans | 55% |
| 16 | Dec 27 | vs. CIN Bengals | 41% |
| 17 | Jan 3 | at CLE Browns | 50% |
| 18 | Jan 10 | vs. JAX Jaguars | 40% |
AFC South standings
| Team | Record | Playoffs | Win div. |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX Jaguars | 5-2 | 91% | 84% |
| HOU Texans | 2-5 | 27% | 13% |
| IND Colts | 2-6 | 4% | 2% |
| TEN Titans | 1-7 | <1% | <1% |
Results so far
| Wk | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs. BAL Ravens | L 23–41 |
| 2 | at KC Chiefs | L 30–33 |
| 3 | vs. HOU Texans | W 19–17 |
| 4 | at WAS Commanders | W 30–13 |
| 5 | at PIT Steelers | L 22–34 |
| 6 | vs. TEN Titans | L 20–26 |
| 7 | at MIN Vikings | L 10–16 |
| 8 | at JAX Jaguars | L 7–42 |
Questions
Can the Colts still make the playoffs?
Yes. They make the playoffs in 4% of 10,000 simulated seasons, and nothing has eliminated them yet.
What are the Colts' chances to win the Super Bowl?
<1%, based on 10,000 simulated seasons and playoffs. They reach the Super Bowl <1% of the time.
How many games will the Colts win?
The model projects 6.3 wins on average, from their 2-6 start and the 9 games left.
Where do the Colts stand in the AFC South?
3rd place, with a 2% chance to win the division.
More
Jaguars playoff chances · Texans playoff chances · Titans playoff chances · All AFC and NFL playoff odds · Playoff picture · Power rankings